中集安瑞科(3899.HK)初探

DuPont

	Current		2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014H2
中集安瑞科	3899.hk
Price	7.75	7.75
PE	11.66		409.70	215.81	153.65	124.73	26.85	74.24	53.55	25.94	19.51	15.25	14.59
P/B	2.98		275.80	36.59	29.33	22.96	6.30	5.78	5.30	4.44	3.66	2.98	2.79
MarketCap(thousand)	14,827,573	14,827,573
1) Turnover			252,376	513,014	769,952	940,991	5,785,542	3,057,466	3,998,617	6,828,964	8,082,895	9,981,462	9,626,242
2) Profit before tax & extra			40,379	70,588	101,791	124,171	656,122	234,645	366,001	726,334	927,138	1,182,982	1,052,822
3) Net profit to Com stock			36,191	68,706	96,504	118,876	552,313	199,731	276,901	571,509	759,863	972,521	1,016,098
4) Com stock Equity			53,761	405,258	505,524	645,845	2,351,955	2,566,165	2,799,805	3,341,132	4,051,913	4,974,599	5,318,387
5) Total Assets			319,787	722,957	906,193	1,060,915	4,397,320	4,296,521	4,848,476	6,777,051	7,727,181	9,560,178	9,608,799
A) Leverage 槓干比			594.83%	178.39%	179.26%	164.27%	186.96%	167.43%	173.17%	202.84%	190.70%	192.18%	180.67%
B) Turnover to Assets %			78.92%	70.96%	84.97%	88.70%	131.57%	71.16%	82.47%	100.77%	104.60%	104.41%	100.18%
C) Profit Margin			16.00%	13.76%	13.22%	13.20%	11.34%	7.67%	9.15%	10.64%	11.47%	11.85%	10.94%
D) EBTax/Net			89.63%	97.33%	94.81%	95.74%	84.18%	85.12%	75.66%	78.68%	81.96%	82.21%	96.51%
Dupond = AxBxCxD = ROE			67%	17%	19%	18%	23%	8%	10%	17%	19%	20%	19%

盈利

盈利分類(m RMB)		2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年1H
能源裝備	Turnover	2,391.9	3,268.4	4,268.4	5,371.6	2,335.8
	GP	22.10%	23.80%	21.90%	21.50%
	Profit	528.6	777.9	934.8	1154.9
化工裝備	Turnover	1,198.2	2,874.6	2,845.9	3,093.6	1,660.9
	GP	12.00%	14.80%	17.50%	18.90%
	Profit	143.8	425.4	498.0	584.7
液態食品裝備	Turnover	408.3	572.9	968.4	1,516.3	855.2
	GP	18.60%	10.70%	15.20%	19.10%
	Profit	75.9	61.3	147.2	289.6

過去三年的燃氣投資似乎沒有令能源裝備的生意倍增，反而是化工和食品分部各大增4倍。當然這也可能是基數問題。未有更仔細的盈利分類資料。

資產

資產(m RMB)		2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年H1
固-經營資產	物業廠房設備	961.7	993.0	1,575.1	1,767.1	1,743.4
	在建工程	65.4	274.8	187.6	74.6	167.8
	地租	194.1	258.1	341.5	328.3	337.5
	投資	1.7	0.1	0.1	4.1	6.1
固-非經營資產	無形資產	42.1	33.6	134.0	123.2	113.4
	商譽	42.8	42.8	129.3	129.3	129.3
	其它	52.9	157.4	51.4	48.6	0.0
流動資產	存貨	1,324.7	2,018.3	1,974.3	2,383.3	2,271.2
	應收賬	878.6	1,353.3	1,841.5	2,284.3	2,704.5
	現金	941.1	1,062.0	953.5	1,533.7	1,192.1
	其它	343.2	462.9	554.9	867.7	891.4
流動負債	短債	99.7	301.1	263.2	134.5	99.3
	其它	2,830.2	1,792.8	2,852.1	3,955.9	3,827.3
非流動負債	長債	22.0	194.6	137.1	36.4	54.2
	其它	240.7	463.2	397.0	424.8	422.5

各種資產算是按比例成長。商譽和無形資產占很小部份。

行業同行

- 杰瑞 (002353.SZ)

(pending)

客戶

(pending)

公司延續性

- 債
- 管理層
- 歷史
- 5年正經營現金流，每年增長
(pending)

價值

(pending)

趨勢

- 2014H1 銷售沒成長，成本增加，稅減少，每股盈利微增。能源部份盈業額和利潤率大幅降低。淨利的微增由少算的稅來隬補。原因未知。見底條件不足

- 根據中石化此前既定戰略，其旗下約3萬個加油站未來將改裝或新增LNG和CNG加氣設施。http://www.hket.com/article/461026

華潤燃氣(1193) vs 港華燃氣(1083)

早一陣子比較過幾隻燃氣股。在aastocks上1083的ROE只有1193的一半，而至1083看上去估值超貴。今仔細看了一下年報，原因應該是1083的資產中有一大部分是商譽。用以下DuPont model減去商譽(綠色部份)重新計算，1083和1193的營利能力差不多。

而且1083是up-trend，加上可預期中華煤氣的分紅方式，應該1083比1193好。有機會會換馬。

		Current		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
港華燃氣		1083.hk
Price		8.02	7.96
PE		20.18		80.44	48.93	30.09	25.36	19.28
P/B		3.17		3.31	2.49	2.22	3.44	3.17
MarketCap(Million)		21,324,531	21,485,269
1) Turnover	thousand			2,905,953	2,981,420	4,321,344	5,183,466	6,715,709
2) Profit before tax & extra				414,214	626,248	1,033,536	1,235,548	1,608,852
3) Net profit to Com stock				265,090	435,797	708,754	840,798	1,106,286
4) Com stock Equity				6,433,588	8,563,437	9,615,314	6,196,751	6,733,629
5) Total Assets				11,330,417	14,882,799	18,183,406	16,970,319	19,831,002
A) Leverage 槓干比				176.11%	173.79%	189.11%	273.86%	294.51%
B) Turnover to Assets %				25.65%	20.03%	23.77%	30.54%	33.86%
C) Profit Margin				14.25%	21.01%	23.92%	23.84%	23.96%
D) EBTax/Net				64.00%	69.59%	68.58%	68.05%	68.76%
Dupond = AxBxCxD = ROE				4%	5%	7%	14%	16%

		Current		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
華潤燃氣		1193.hk
Price		22.35	22.45
PE		20.4		100.46	64.57	42.45	30.34	23.11
P/B		3.63		20.03	7.08	5.36	4.42	3.63
MarketCap(Million)		49,929,089	49,706,688
1) Turnover	thousand			4,824,772	9,705,327	14,208,046	13,621,787	22,288,027
2) Profit before tax & extra				627,242	1,366,969	2,147,702	2,568,817	3,810,861
3) Net profit to Com stock				496,998	773,202	1,176,268	1,645,543	2,160,945
4) Com stock Equity				2,492,165	7,048,196	9,318,659	11,296,483	13,772,983
5) Total Assets				12,055,906	23,586,189	24,844,175	37,280,166	50,071,839
A) Leverage 槓干比				483.75%	334.64%	266.61%	330.02%	363.55%
B) Turnover to Assets %				40.02%	41.15%	57.19%	36.54%	44.51%
C) Profit Margin				13.00%	14.08%	15.12%	18.86%	17.10%
D) EBTax/Net				79.24%	56.56%	54.77%	64.06%	56.70%
Dupond = AxBxCxD = ROE				20%	11%	13%	15%	16%

這個計算方法是從巴黎學來的。http://parisvalueinvesting.blogspot.hk/2010_05_01_archive.html